NOV.18
CRUDE SUPPLIES ARE STARTING TO WEIGH ON THE MARKET DOLLAR IS STRONGER PROBABLY LOOKING AT $48-$50 UNLESS WE GO INTO THE DEEP FREEZE IN JAN. YEN DROPPED HARD LOOKING FOR A TURN AROUND 120 YEN/DOLLAR , EURO NEAR 115 THEN ECB MOVES ON RATES. WE STILL LIKE THE SOFTS.COPPER SHORT SQUEEZE IN THE NEWS.GOLD IS THE ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT PLAY FOR FUNDS LOOKING FOR $500 . MEATS ARE LOOKING TO TOP OUT AND THE GRAINS CAN GET CHEAPER INTO JANUARY WHEN MARCH CALL OPTIONS SHOULD BE A VALUE PLAY.
RC This comment was posted the 18-nov-2005 at 14:20 NY time

OCT.18
PPI +1.9 LAST CPI+1.2 THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO SHOW WHAT WE ALREADY KNEW EVERYTHING COSTS MORE.THE NUMBERS TAKE US BACK TO 1980 LEVELS BUT THE ECONOMY STILL HAS ENOUGH FAT IN IT TO GET INTO THE FIRST QUARTER OF' 06 SO WE ARE LOOKING AT 4 1/4-4 1/2 %ON THE FED FUNDS WITH THE 30 YR CLOSER TO 5% BY THEN.
HURRICANE IMPACT IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF COAST MIGHT STILL NEED TO BE FACTORED INTO COFFEE AND SUGAR PRICES.THE COPPER MKT IS RUNNING ON CONTINUED CHINESE DEMAND CAN GET $2.00 BEFORE NEW YEAR. RC
Posted the 18 oct. 2005 15:02 Ny Time


RONALD CARR DAILY ; Sept. 15 2005
WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT GOLD TO TAKE OUT THE$ 463 AREA IN OCT. WE ALSO NOTE A FED POSITION CALL IN THE 10 YR AS A POSSIBLE RETURN TO THE 11416 AREA IN SEP.


JULY 14;
CPI FOR JUNE IS FLAT RETAIL SALES SHOWED AN UPTICK AS DID JOBLESS CLAIMS.THE FED WILL KEEP RAISING A QUARTER POINT AND THE YIELD CURVE LOOKS TO GO FLAT AT 4%. ENERGY PRICES NEED TO SEE CONTINUED DRAWDOWNS TO MAKE A SUSTAINED MOVE HIGHER FROM THESE LEVELS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BUBBLE MENTALITY DEVELOPING WHICH CAN SPIKE PRICES TO LEVELS THAT WOULD AT SOME POINT CHOKE OFF ANY FURTHER GLOBAL DEMAND SCENARIO.GRAINS ARE REVERSING LAST YEARS SUMMER SELLOFF ON HOT AND DRY FORCASTS AND POSSIBLE BELOW TREND LINE YIELDS. SUGAR LOOKS TO BE IN A SOLID UPTREND WITH UNLEADED AT $2.50 A GALLON ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS A GROWTH INDUSTRY.
This comment was posted on this page the 14/07/2005 at 10:55 NY
time

MAY18;
The yield curve continues to flatten as hedge funds pile on the only trade that seems to work for them.Core CPI for April was flat but everything costs more,amazing.Crude stocks keep building but we can't refine it fast enough so gasoline will still cost more than $2 this summer,this market is still pricing in the cheaper dollar.We are looking for the DX to get back to the 8800 area 3mos. and the Euro to touch 124.75 in the near term. The beans have a pretty good fundamental going into planting if the weather becomes a factor they can get back around 680 .Sugar story still sounds good but the trade isn't aggressive and the funds are getting short.
R. Carr
This comment was received at 9:27 the May 18 2005 and put on the web at 13:40 the same day (New York time)

APR.4
WE HAVE SEEN THE FUNDS LIQUIDATE ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE PROCEEDS GOING INTO THE ENERGY MKT'S.THIS SCENARIO IS BEING FUELED (pardon the pun) BY THE BELIEF THAT DEMAND WILL EXCEED REFINERY CAPACITY THIS SUMMER.THE MARKET WILL TOP OUT WHEN PRICE CUTS DEMAND OR THE DOLLAR APPRECIATES. HEAVY SPEC. LONG POSITION MAKES IT HARD TO ENTER AT THESE LEVELS. SHORTS HAVE BEEN COVERING ON NEW HIGHS.HIGH ENERGY PRICES ARE A NEGATIVE FOR EQUITIES AND CAN BE A DRAG ON COMMODITY PRICES DO TO INCREASED PRODUCTION AND SHIPPING COSTS.
R.CARR

Mar.1
           We have a few emerging trades we think can develop in the near term. Sugar is set up with what appears to be a tight supply situation in Brazil just waiting for the funds to lighten up.Crude is pricing in the lower dollar if the Fed stays on course the DX can get get back around 8800 by July.If the dollar corrects higher the July heating oil looks like a sell.Grains reversed up on short cover if the funds start to go long we can look for another leg up thru April then watch for reversals until the weather takes over in July.Coffee still might have some more upside looking for calls in July for a penny or less.
R Carr

Dec;30
 As 2004 draws to a close we look forward to an eventful New Year.The monotizing of the U.S. debt has created a flood of dollars looking for a place to go.50 billion a month going out is coming back into treasuries,stocks and real estate in the U.S but we are starting to see more investment in commodity currencies such as Australia and Canada and outright investments in raw material producers such as Brazil.China is the key to the scenario we have been experiencing for the last 18 months and if nothing changes we would expect this will continue until the Chinese revalue the Yuan to reflect an exchange rate closer to market conditions within the G7 as opposed to a peg to the dollar.If the Chinese do make a move in this direction the Japanese would benefit immediately the U.S would look at an inflation spike and a rate rise short term until the dollar stabilizes at higher levels.Another scenario would be China does nothing and the prevailing market conditions would force the ECB to intervene to stop a dollar slide under .75 vs.euro.

R.Carr


 DEC.7
DOLLAR DROP WAS A LITTLE MORE THAN WE WERE LOOKING FOR LOOK FOR A BOUNCE BACK TO 84 ON THE DX. ENERGY TRADE WENT BACK TO FUNDAMENTALS ON A BUILD IN DISTILLATES $35 -40 IS A LEVEL IF THE DOLLAR STAYS LOW. STARTING TO SEE PROFIT TAKERS COMING IN EQUITIES AND GOLD.
                IF YOU WOULD LIKE MORE INFORMATION ON HOW WE APPLY THESE OPINIONS TO TRADING STRATEGIES CONTACT US. R.CARR




Oct.29
The markets are churning in front of the U.S. presidential election but there seems to be a dollar lower trend with Gold and Euro steady to higher Crude heat and nat gas will need some cold weather soon to hold these levels, we have been shopping for cheap puts.Wheat is the best bet in the grains right now ,looking for value in calls 6-8 mos. out on corn and beans .Sugar fundamentals for 05 still a good story lots of time on the calls.Equities should do better after the election one way or the other.The yield curve is flattening on slow growth with no statistical inflation.If the fed keeps adding 1/4 pt.hikes could we see an inversion next year or will the back end drop after the shorts exit at the end of the year. R.Carr



Sept.30
The end of the quarter usually brings some trend reversal on close outs we saw a little retrenchment in the bonds but in general gold sugar and the grains look to extend their recent trends.The energy mkts are pushing upside into the heating season look at the storage for any signs of a top.Equities forming a bottom set up for a post election move higher . R Carr


JUL 9
               The fed gave the bond traders 1/4 point but the economy might be in question Metals snapped back look to be a good alternative hold for the second half of the year. Sugar is attracting new specs open intrest over 200k in spot but can get another pop .Corn looking for a bottom bean old crop spds can go higher .Cotton and OJ long term buys.Index's sideways to down for the summer bonds can retrace up R CARR